Wywiad/Interview with gen. Ben Hodges

Wywiad/Interview with gen. Ben Hodges

In the light of the tense situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border and ongoing diplomatic efforts, the Institute for Security and International Development asked General Ben Hodges, former US Army commander in Europe, for his opinion. The following is  the transcript of there interview he gave to Michał Górski, the Director of the Institute’s International Cooperation Department.

Michał Górski:

In a recent New York Times publications you have mentioned, that: If we, the West, look like we are not cohesive and ready to work together, then the risk of the Kremlin making a terrible miscalculation goes up. What do you think the escalation on the Russian-Ukrainian border will mean for Central and Eastern Europe and the transatlantic Alliance?  

Lt. Gen. (R) Ben Hodges:

I believe that President Putin is operating at a particularly high risk-tolerance level right now and so i am worried that if the Kremlin sees us divided and irresolute, then he will feel emboldened to expand the current kinetic operations in Ukraine to new areas. This will increase the danger for Central and Eastern Europe, create refugee problems, disrupt all facets of normal business and life, and endanger energy supplies for the winter. more broadly, this will also embolden the Chinese communist party who will assess that if the USA and NATO can not work closely together to stop the Kremlin, then we will have trouble stopping the CCP vis a vis Taiwan.

MG: Do you see sufficient awareness of the threat among the decision-makers of Western countries? Do the reactions of U.S. partners indicate a strong commitment to early prevention of this potential conflict? 

BH: I see a significantly heightened level of awareness amongst American, Canadian, and European leaders. The issue is whether or not they can all agree on appropriate responses. Key will be a strongly unified, cohesive front of nations with combined diplomatic and economic power, backed up by the potential for combined military force, necessary to deter the Kremlin. this is a huge early test for the new German government, they are the key in this.

MG: How would you describe the President Biden administration’s approach to relations with the Russian Federation? 

BH: Initially I was pleased, but I’ve begun to worry a bit, given the negotiating approach the last week, taking troops off the table pre-emptively, not involving Poland or Ukraine or Lithuania in any talks, giving hints that NATO membership for Ukraine might be deferred indefinitely.

MG: In today’s light, how do you assess the U.S. administration’s decision to drop sanctions on the region’s key Nord Stream II pipeline?

BH: I imagine that this is being reviewed and that very strong pressure is being placed by the White House on the new German government. Germany is key in all of this and the administration is right to want to build a strong relationship. How Germany reacts in all of this, will go a long way to determining what the USA does and what the Kremlin does.

MG: Do you tie the events on the Polish-Belarusian border and the concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine into one complex Kremlin’s strategic plan? 

BH: Absolutely these are not coincidental. Everything that Lukashenka does is with the approval of the Kremlin. I think this disgusting and inhumane weaponization of migrants in Belarus is intended to put pressure on the European Union, cause dissension between members, and undermine civil society within Poland in particular. But I also see this as either a distraction to draw attention away from Ukraine, a ‘recconaisance’ to guage reaction times and preparations along the border of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, or something of a larger effort that will lead to the removal of Lukashenka by the Kremlin. I think that they already have the next guy ready to go into Minsk.

MG: What advice would you give to the Polish authorities in the face of a possible escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine? 

BH: Be prepared for large numbers of refugees, continue working closely with your NATO allies, conduct some crisis decision-making exercises at the highest level of government, continue normal readiness operations, continue to reduce dependence on Russian gas exports.

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